Decoding the Trump Indictment

Why is it so important to keep the country’s secrets secret? And what does the alphabet soup of national security-related acronyms in the indictment against the former president actually mean? Three intelligence professionals with more than 80 years of combined experience explain what’s involved in collecting and protecting the people, methods and information in classified documents – and the potential consequences of their exposure.

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Trump’s enthusiasm for bringing back Michael Flynn is a revealing sign, CNN.com

Opinion by Peter Bergen and Erik German

Updated 6:53 PM EDT, Thu July 6, 2023

Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, a professor of practice at Arizona State University, and the host of the Audible podcast “In the Room with Peter Bergen” also on Apple and Spotify. Erik German is the senior producer of “In the Room.” The opinions expressed in this commentary are their own. View more opinion at CNN.
CNN — 

With the twice-indicted former President Donald Trump still leading the race for the GOP presidential nomination, his possible return to the White House in 2025 can’t be discounted. Which raises the question: Who would Trump bring back into his orbit should there be a second Trump term?

Peter Bergen

By Trump’s own account, high on that list would be his former national security adviser, retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn..

At a “ReAwaken America Tour” event held at the Trump National Doral Hotel in Miami in May, where Flynn was the headliner, Trump called in to tell Flynn, “You just have to stay healthy because we’re bringing you back. We’re gonna bring you back.”

Based on Flynn’s tight embrace of the Christian nationalist right and wild conspiracy theories, were Flynn to be brought back into a senior national security role in a possible second Trump administration, the US would be in for quite a scary ride.

Flynn, who had served with distinction in the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, was a key supporter of Trump early on during his 2016 presidential campaign, when much of the Republican national security establishment had publicly declared their opposition to Trump.

Flynn was handsomely repaid by Trump when he won the 2016 presidential election, gaining the critical position of national security adviser.

Flynn wouldn’t last there long. He lied to then-Vice President Mike Pence about a conversation he had with the Russian ambassador before the Trump administration had assumed office, and he was defenestrated from the White House within three and half weeks, earning him the distinction of being the shortest-serving US national security adviser ever.

Flynn also lied to FBI officials about those discussions with the Russian ambassador and later pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI, but Trump pardoned him as he left office in late 2020.

Around this time, Flynn became part of a cabal of advisers to Trump who were trying to overturn the 2020 election during his final days in office. In an interview Flynn gave to Newsmax TV, he advocated seizing voting machines from around the US and deploying the military in swing states that had voted for Joe Biden.

At a wild meeting at the White House with Trump on December 18, 2020, Flynn again called for the seizure of voting machines. For a decorated three-star general who had once sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution, it seemed that Flynn had gone over the edge.

Today, Flynn has also reinvented himself as a star of the Christian nationalist right and regularly tours the country as a headliner with the “ReAwaken America Tour.”

These two-day marathons of preaching and politics have convened in more than a dozen states since launching in 2021, drawing audiences that organizers say number in the thousands in-person and many more online.

The onstage messaging offers a sharply drawn window into Christian nationalist ideology that makes “an apocalyptic call to a shrinking cohort to defend a fading vision of America as a white Christian nation.” That’s according to the book “Taking America Back for God,” a 2020 study of Christian nationalism by sociologists Andrew Whitehead and Samuel Perry.

exp TSR.Todd.Flynn.denies.advocating.coup_00000610.png

Michael Flynn is playing with fire

Although Flynn himself is reported to have privately rejected the QAnon conspiracy movement as nonsense, Christian nationalists, as a whole, are quite susceptible to QAnon conspiracy beliefs, according to research by Paul Djupe and Jacob Dennen of Denison University. They found that around three-quarters of Christian nationalists they surveyed agreed with the QAnon conspiracy view that “Within the upper reaches of government, media, and finance, a secretive group of elites are thwarting Donald Trump’s efforts at reform, fomenting street violence, and engaging in child trafficking and other crimes.”

Recent national surveys suggest that about 20% of the US population embraces some Christian nationalist ideas. That is, they agree or strongly agree with statements such as “the federal government should declare the US a ‘Christian nation….’”

The “ReAwaken America Tour”  

The ReAwaken America crowd looks to be a highly energized vanguard within this population. And Flynn is placing himself right at the center of it.

The ReAwaken America Tour is the brainchild of Clay Clark, a former wedding DJ and serial entrepreneur in Oklahoma, who says he had something like a conversion experience when he met Flynn at a political event and, as a result, decided to start holding conferences starring the retired general.

For an Audible podcast that we produced about Flynn and his role in ReAwaken America, Clark told us he considers Flynn “to be kind of like a father figure to [him],” and he hopes that Flynn will be Trump’s vice-presidential candidate.

On tour, Flynn is dubbed, without irony, “America’s general,” and, at the event we attended in May, America’s general was the unquestionable star of the show. Standing on stage at a podium flanked by jumbotron TVs draped with red Trump flags, Flynn told the crowd—many of whom had paid hundreds of dollars for tickets for the event, not to mention the price of bedding down at the Trump resort—that there was a conspiracy to take over the world.

According to Flynn, this conspiracy is led by… the World Economic Forum. Shouting into his mic, Flynn asserted, “The World Economic Forum. I know some of these people. And you can listen to what they say and watch what they do. There’s going to be forces, I mean, big, big forces. They’re going to try to pull this country towards the darkness.”

The World Economic Forum is best known for its annual gabfest held every winter in Davos, Switzerland, where heads of state and big macher CEOs gather in the snow-covered Alps to glad-hand and listen to deadly serious talks about the state of the world. Pretty dull stuff, but for Flynn and his acolytes at the ReAwaken America Tour, the World Economic Forum and its founder, the German economist Klaus Schwab, have a secret plan to purportedly take over the world known as the “Great Reset.”

“The Great Reset”

This phrase does indeed come from Schwab, who co-authored a book in 2020 about something he called the Great Reset, which was mostly just observations about how the Covid-19 pandemic had caused havoc around the world — along with some vague suggestions about how how governments and businesses can plan for a more resilient and inclusive world.

Yet, the organizers of the ReAwaken American Tour on the outer fringes of the right wing think that the Great Reset isn’t just a description of the state of the world, but is an actual conspiracy to take over the world. And in this narrative, global elites deliberately imposed Covid-19 lockdowns to destroy the world economy as part of a plan to bring about a socialist world government.

When we asked Clark how Schwab, an 85-year-old German academic, was going to take over the globe, Clark took a pass, saying, “ I don’t know that because I’m not thankfully hanging out with Klaus Schwab.”

Flynn and his supporters have a plan to remake the GOP in their image from the bottom-up and to take over county-level Republican organizations, boards of elections and school boards.

At a meeting kicking off the Miami conference, Flynn spelled out that plan. “Local action has a national impact. You get involved in your school board, your county commissioners, or elections…and you get in there, and you mix it up, and you fight.”

Flynn describes this struggle as a war. At the same Miami event, he said, “I have fought these bastards around the world, OK? And, the worst battles I have – sadly, sadly – the worst battles, the worst war that I am involved in is in my own country.”

Flynn says he’s at war in his own country. And it looks like he’s trying to muster an army.

Putin’s 1917 Moment, CNN.com

Opinion: What Putin must be dreading

Opinion by Peter Bergen
Updated 9:13 AM EDT, Sun June 25, 2023

Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, a professor of practice at Arizona State University, and the host of the Audible podcast “In the Room with Peter Bergen” also on Apple and Spotify. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

CNN — 

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a speech Saturday condemning the mutiny by the Wagner group, comparing the uprising to the events sparked by Russia’s 1917 revolution. Putin claimed that the Russians were stabbed “in the back” by nameless enemies towards the end of World War I, which is why the Russians lost that war and that in turn led to “a civil war” in Russia, he said.

It was a strange but telling comparison for Putin to make. Not for the first time Putin’s account of Russian history was seriously off during his remarks on Saturday, but his invocation of the events surrounding the 1917 revolution shows where his head is at.

Like other Russian leaders through history, he has to be concerned that military defeat, in this case the failure of Russia to conquer the much smaller nation of Ukraine, could prove his undoing.

After all, the Communist regime that Putin served as a KGB officer owed its very existence to the 1917 revolution, which was precipitated by the disastrous leadership of Russian emperor Nicholas II during World War I. (Nicholas II had also helped pave the way for the 1917 revolution by his mistakes during the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, which the Russians lost to the Japanese.)

The Russians were not stabbed in the back during World War I, as Putin suggested during his remarks on Saturday. In fact, they fought a ruinous land war in Europe that was characterized by the extreme incompetence of Nicholas II and his senior leadership. As Russian losses on the battlefield mounted, Russian soldiers mutinied, helping to instigate the 1917 revolution. Sound familiar?

During the 1917 revolution, a Marxist party known as the Bolsheviks seized power. A year later, Nicholas II and other members of the ruling Romanov family ended up on the wrong end of a firing squad. The Bolsheviks then evolved into the Communist Party, the supreme source of power in the Soviet Union until its collapse in 1991.

A keen student of Russian history, Putin is aware of the stakes here. His invocation of the events in 1917 shows that he knows that the Wagner group mutiny may pose an existential threat to his regime. He has expunged pretty much all resistance by any civilian organizations, so he only faces a real threat from Russian military forces.

Arguably no event better explains Putin’s view of the world than the fall of the Berlin Wall in December 1989 when he was a KGB officer posted in Dresden in what was then East Germany. The fall of the wall was a prelude to the implosion of the Soviet Union two years later. Ever since then, Putin has been trying to make Russia great again.

The Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan in February 1989 after an almost decade-long war helped set the stage for both the fall of the Berlin Wall and of the Soviet Union. If the Soviets couldn’t defeat a lightly armed Afghan guerilla force in a country they shared a border with, what did it say about their ability to maintain their iron grip on Eastern Europe?

Military defeats in the Russo-Japanese War and World War I proved fatal for the Romanovs, while defeat in Afghanistan hastened the end of the Soviet empire. By contrast, dictator Josef Stalin’s key role in the defeat of the Nazis during World War II helped to ensure that he died peacefully in his own bed and even today, he remains a popular figure among Russians.

Putin is surely aware that history may not repeat itself but sometimes it can rhyme, to paraphrase a remark often attributed to Mark Twain.

Putin doesn’t want to go the way of the Romanovs nor of the Soviets and would prefer Stalin’s comfortable exit from this world when the time comes. The big question will be: Can he pull it off? And the short answer is that no one knows if he can, including Putin himself.

 

Future Security Forum, New America and Arizona State University

Wednesday, September 13
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New America and Arizona State University are pleased to invite you to the 2023 Future Security Forum, which will be held online September 13, 2023.

The Forum is the premier annual event of New America and Arizona State University’s Future Security project—a research, education, and policy partnership that develops new paradigms for understanding and addressing new and emerging global challenges. Forum sessions ask the questions:
What Systemic Shifts Will Shape the Future of Conflict?
What Will the Future of AI Look Like?
What New Political Trends Will Shape the Future?
What Technologies Will Shape the Future of Warfare?
In What New Domains Will Conflict Occur?
What Does the Future of Security Look Like in Latin America?
What Are the Lessons of the War in Ukraine?
How Are Special Operations Forces Preparing for the Future?
Follow the conversation online using #FutureSecurityForum and follow us at @NewAmerica and @ASU.

I asked intelligence experts to decode Trump’s top secret documents. Here’s what they said, CNN.com

Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, a professor of practice at Arizona State University, and the host of the Audible podcast “In the Room with Peter Bergen” also on Apple and Spotify. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

CNN — 

At the heart of the case of “United States of America v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta” are 31 classified documents that former President Donald Trump kept at his Mar-a-Lago club, each briefly described in the indictment against him.

Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges and given a variety of defenses for his handling of the documents.

Those 31 documents are alluded to in the indictment using an intelligence shorthand, such as one labeled: “TOP SECRET//[redacted]/[redacted]// ORCON/NOFORN” that is followed by a brief description: “Document dated June 2020 concerning nuclear capabilities of a foreign country.”

To decipher the intelligence markings of the classified documents and how sensitive the intelligence they contain might be, I turned to two of the United States’ leading experts on intelligence.

Douglas London is a retired, 34-year veteran of the CIA’s Clandestine Service with multiple postings in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, who spent much of his career recruiting agents in foreign countries and who has written a very interesting book about his experiences, “The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence,” along with frequent contributions to CNN Opinion.

I also spoke to Mark Stout, a historian who has written or co-edited several books about intelligence and who also served for more than a decade as an intelligence analyst at the State Department and the CIA.

London and Stout walked me through what can be learned about the documents in the indictment. (You can hear excerpts of my conversations with them on my podcast, ”Decoding the Trump Indictment”) So, let’s start with the one I just mentioned, “TOP SECRET//[redacted]/[redacted]// ORCON/NOFORN. Document dated June 2020 concerning nuclear capabilities of a foreign country.”

London points out that this document about the nuclear program of a foreign country is so sensitive that even two of the codenames related to the document “have been redacted because of their sensitivity.”

The category of this document, “TOP SECRET,” is the highest category of classification, which means that releasing the intelligence in the document would do “exceptionally grave damage to the national security” of the US.

Further underlining the sensitivity of the intelligence in this document about the nuclear program of a foreign country is the notation “ORCON,” which is short for “Originator Control,” meaning that whichever US intelligence agency produced this document would need to approve before the document could be shared with any other agency within the US government, according to London. And “NOFORN” is almost self-explanatory: The document can’t be shared with foreigners.

I asked London about another document labeled “TOP SECRET//HCS-P/SI//ORCON-USGOV/NOFORN” which is described as an “Undated document concerning military activity of a foreign country.”

Having spent decades recruiting foreigners to betray their secrets to the CIA, London quickly pointed out that “HCS-P” means “Human Control System,” which is intelligence acquired from a human source, while the “P” refers to “Product.”

In other words, intelligence in the document seems to have come from a well-placed spy working for the CIA, while the “SI” in this document refers to Signals Intelligence, so the intelligence also likely involved some signals interception by the US government, for instance, from an electronic source such as a cell phone.

London said a document about the “military capabilities of a foreign country” from January 2020 marked “TOP SECRET//[redacted]/TK//ORCON/IMCON/NOFORN” once again had a classified code word which was itself so secret that it had been redacted, while the notation “TK” is short for “Talent Keyhole,” which means that the intelligence was derived by overhead imagery of some sort, likely from satellite systems.

London then explained a point I hadn’t fully considered before: “Documents are classified to protect the sources so that we can continue collecting that information and protect the sources who are doing it. The sourcing and the collection technology is usually the most sensitive aspect, not the information itself. If you find out about Iranian war plans, Russian war plans, Chinese war plans, you know how many planes, tanks and where they might attack. But the way you collected it is what’s most sensitive.”

Those must be protected, not only because a spy for the CIA could possibly be executed but also because if a spy is uncovered or a particular technical intelligence collection method is revealed, an entire stream of important intelligence might dry up – preventing the US from learning much more about potential threats to national security.

I then asked the intelligence historian Mark Stout about six of the documents in the indictment, each of which is labeled in a similar manner as both “TOP SECRET” and “SPECIAL HANDLING,” and all of which are described as being about “White House intelligence briefing(s),” that took place on two dates in 2018, three dates in 2019 and one in 2020.

Stout says these are “almost certainly a reference to either the President’s Daily Brief or to documents given to or briefed to President Trump during the President’s Daily Brief.”

The President’s Daily Brief typically concerns an issue the president is interested in or doesn’t know about already, but is so significant that potentially “his hair is going to be on fire when you tell him,” according to Stout.

Stout explained that the President’s Daily Brief is among the US intelligence community’s crown jewels, “And you don’t want foreign powers to know what the intelligence community is telling the president in a very closed meeting in the Oval Office.“

Trump stored these classified documents in various locations, including a ballroom and a bathroom at Mar-a-Lago, a resort club where, according to the indictment, tens of thousands of guests visited after Trump had left the presidency.

The cavalier way that Trump stored some of the most sensitive secrets gathered by the US government, according to London and Stout, all of which were likely gathered at significant financial cost and possibly human risk by the US government, surely disqualifies him from once again being considered to be the commander in chief whose primary duty is to the nation’s security and to keep his fellow Americans safe.

The fiasco at Mar-a-Lago that is alleged in the indictment against him suggests that Trump could care less about this fundamental duty.

An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the “P” in HCS-P stands for “proprietary,” denoting that it comes from a particularly sensitive human source operation. In fact, it stands for “product,” meaning that it is a raw, not finally evaluated intelligence report.

 

A blistering indictment of the Trump-Biden legacy in Afghanistan, CNN.com

Updated 10:13 AM EDT, Sat June 10, 2023

Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, a professor of practice at Arizona State University, and the host of the Audible podcast “In the Room” also on Apple and Spotify. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

CNN — 

The latest United Nations report on the Taliban published Friday is a blistering indictment of the delusions that surrounded the US withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that was negotiated by Donald Trump’s administration in 2020.

President Joe Biden followed through on that agreement almost two years ago when he withdrew all US troops from Afghanistan in a chaotic evacuation that marked the end of the US’ longest war.

The withdrawal agreement was supposed to be predicated on the Taliban negotiating with the elected Afghan government about some kind of power-sharing arrangement and cutting their ties to terrorist groups like al Qaeda. But none of that happened.

After Biden announced the impending withdrawal of all US troops, the chief negotiator with the Taliban for both Biden and Trump administrations, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, testified in May 2021 to the US House Foreign Affairs Committee that the Taliban “seek normalcy in terms of… removal from sanctions, not to remain a pariah.”

But international pariahs the Taliban have remained. Not a single country recognizes them as the legitimate Afghan government 21 months after they took over the country.

The belief by some US officials that the Taliban would become normal political actors as they attained more power was a classic case of falling into the trap of what intelligence analysts term “mirror-imaging” – which is the often erroneous assumption that American rivals will tend to act just like the United States would act.

In this case, the mirror-imaging error was the belief that as the Taliban gained power, they would abandon some of their most noxious policies, such as the exclusion of females from education after the age of 12 and their coddling of terrorist groups, so they could eventually secure recognition from countries around the world that they are the legitimate Afghan government.

But as the new 20-page UN report lays out in detail, the Taliban of today that were supposedly seeking “normalcy” are just as bad as the old Taliban, maybe worse.

The report notes that “promises made by the Taliban in August 2021 to be more inclusive, break with terrorist groups…and not pose a security threat to other countries seem increasingly hollow, if not plain false, in 2023.”

Indeed, approximately 20 terrorist groups are operating in Afghanistan, according to the UN, and “terrorist groups have greater freedom of maneuver” under the new Taliban regime. The report also indicates that the link between the Taliban and al Qaeda “remains strong and symbiotic.”

That symbiotic relationship was underlined last summer when the leader of al Qaeda, Ayman al Zawahiri, was killed in a US drone strike in downtown Kabul. Zawahiri was living in Kabul with the “awareness” of Taliban officials, according to a Biden senior administration official.

The UN estimates 400 al Qaeda fighters live in Afghanistan and says some members of the terrorist group have received appointments in the Taliban administration as well as monthly “welfare payments.”

Nothing says you are breaking with al Qaeda like providing a safe haven to their leader and giving members of the terrorist group jobs and money handouts.

Worrisomely, al Qaeda is “covertly rebuilding its external operations capability,” according to the UN, i.e., its ability to launch attacks outside of Afghanistan.

The local branch of ISIS in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-K, is estimated to consist of 4,000 to 6,000 fighters, including family members, per the report. While the Taliban and ISIS-K have sometimes clashed, the Taliban have proven incapable of removing this ISIS affiliate from their territory.

The Pakistani Taliban continue to base themselves in Afghanistan with an estimated 4,000 to 6,000 fighters and have launched over a hundred attacks against Pakistan since November 2022, according to the report.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan – until the summer of 2021, a flawed elective democracy – is now a theocratic dictatorship led by the Taliban’s clerical leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada. Known as “the Commander of the Faithful” and rarely seen in public, the Taliban leader lives in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, where he issues “ever more conservative” edicts, the UN report explains.

Some of these edicts include banning women from working for UN organizations that provide essential services for millions of Afghans and banning girls from being educated after the age of 12.

Emphasizing the Taliban’s’ estrangement from the rest of the world, 58 Taliban officials are sanctioned by the UN. Of these, an astonishing 35 hold cabinet-level positions in the de facto Afghan government, according to the report.

Edmund Fitton-Brown, the former coordinator of the UN team that monitors the Taliban, told me that a key takeaway of the new report is the extent to which some senior Taliban remain involved in the drug trade. The Taliban’s production of opium and methamphetamine is lucrative. “Total profits made by all those involved in the drug trade are about $1.2 billion,” said Fitton-Brown. For comparison, total Taliban revenues from official sources are estimated at $2.2 billion, according to the UN report. The continuing scale of the drug trade is despite a decree last year from the Taliban’s leader that banned drug production.

Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the think tank New America, also told me that the report underlines that the Taliban look “worse today than they did a year ago” because they are led by an “inaccessible, inflexible, religious leader.” They are also not living up to their agreements with the US when they inked the 2020 withdrawal agreement, particularly regarding the continuing presence of multiple terrorist groups on their soil, such as al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban.

And the Taliban are today armed to the teeth thanks to the stockpile of arms that was left behind as the US and other NATO forces withdrew from Afghanistan. That arsenal consists of 70,000 armored vehicles, 20 assault aircraft, more than 100 helicopters and around half a million rounds of ammunition, according to the UN, and is worth an estimated $8.5 billion – more than the defense budgets of many European countries.

In sum, “debacle” seems almost too kind a word to describe the Trump-Biden legacy in Afghanistan.

 

Episode 4 CIA Secret Museum

Tucked away deep inside the intelligence agency’s headquarters in Langley, VA is a museum most of us will never see. It chronicles the organization’s history—including some of its most important missions and greatest failures. The public isn’t allowed in, but in this episode you get a peek inside.

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